SUPERCOMPUTER PREDICTS WINNERS OF 2024-25 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
- A supercomputer has predicted Real Madrid to dominate the Champions League group stage with a flawless record.
- However, Manchester City are tipped to win their second Champions League trophy by defeating Real Madrid in the final.
- Liverpool are expected to reach semi-finals under Arne Slot after knocking Arsenal out in the quarter-finals.
The 2024-25 Champions League campaign will soon be underway, and it's that time of the year for fans to begin making their predictions for the continent's showpiece club competition. While many will expect Real Madrid to continue their dominance after getting the long-anticipated Kylian Mbappe deal over the line this summer, others may predict a second Manchester City crown or Bayern Munich's resurgence.
Meanwhile, a supercomputer has simulated the campaign 1,000 times in order to predict which club is most likely to end the season as champions of Europe. Grosvenor Sports carried out this experiment, and their probability model, which has not been determined by human predictions or bias, has been defined as: "The predictions are the result of a model simulating every game in the competition and predicting the exact score it thinks every game will be. A level of randomness is added to the predictions to ensure that upsets happen rather than the best teams in the league winning every game. The outcome of the score predictions is the most common result between the relevant teams.
"The model then simulates the remaining games in a season 1,000 times and constructs an average league table from the 1,000 simulations, to rule out anomalous results. This is in order to capture as many different outcomes as possible, and this includes teams like Aston Villa winning the Champions League in a small number of simulations."
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Final Group Stage Table
Supercomputer predicts Real Madrid to have flawless group proceedings
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Bayern | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Barcelona | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Man City | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Monaco | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Arsenal | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Dortmund | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | PSV | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | Milan | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 | Feyenoord | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 |
| 15 | Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 13 |
| 17 | Girona | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 18 | Liverpool | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Celtic | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 21 | Sparta Praha | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
| 23 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 |
| 24 | PSG | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 25 | Salzburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 |
| 26 | Brugge | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 7 |
| 27 | Sporting | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 28 | Lille | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 29 | Brest | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 30 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 6 |
| 31 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
| 32 | Shakhtar | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 6 |
| 33 | Bologna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 34 | Young Boys | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 35 | Crvena Zvezda | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 0 |
As the winners of last season's competition when they pipped Borussia Dortmund to a historic 15th triumph, Real Madrid have only bolstered their chances of a rinse and repeat this season by adding Mbappe to their books. In the first-ever league-style group format, the supercomputer predicts Los Blancos to pick up where they left things last term.
Despite difficult trips to Liverpool and Europa League winners Atalanta awaiting them, alongside visits from the aforementioned Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan, they are predicted to win all eight of their fixtures. Meanwhile, Inter Milan and Bayern Munich are expected to finish closely behind in second and third, with unbeaten starts themselves.
Interestingly, although Manchester City are considered among the teams in the middle of the road when it comes to fixture difficulty, banana skin ties against the likes of PSG, Juventus, and 2023 losing finalists Inter Milan means Pep Guardiola's side are expected to pick up three draws early into proceedings.
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Arsenal and Liverpool, meanwhile, are projected to struggle with their difficult run of fixtures, with the Gunners finishing 10th and the Reds clocking in at a surprisingly low 18th in Arne Slot's maiden campaign in Anfield's hot-seat. Other notable talking points from this phase include Aston Villa finding victory easy to come by, and PSG, in stark contrast, being able to find just one win following their talisman's departure.
Knockout Rounds
Liverpool to reach semi-final, Man City to claim second title
| Round | Home | Home Goals | Away | Away Goals | Notes |
| Knock-Out Phase | Monaco | 0 | Liverpool | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Liverpool | 1 | Monaco | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Liverpool win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Arsenal | 3 | Sparta Praha | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Sparta Praha | 1 | Arsenal | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Arsenal win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Dortmund | 2 | Girona | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Girona | 1 | Dortmund | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Dortmund win |
| Knock-Out Phase | PSV | 2 | Celtic | 1 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Celtic | 2 | PSV | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; PSV win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Milan | 1 | Benfica | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Benfica | 1 | Milan | 3 | Leg 2 of 2; Milan win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Feyenoord | 1 | Juventus | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | Juventus | 0 | Feyenoord | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Juventus win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Leverkusen | 0 | PSG | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | PSG | 1 | Leverkusen | 1 | Leg 2 of 2; PSG win |
| Knock-Out Phase | Stuttgart | 1 | RB Leipzig | 1 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Knock-Out Phase | RB Leipzig | 3 | Stuttgart | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; RB Leipzig win |
| Round of 16 | Real Madrid | 2 | Milan | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | Milan | 2 | Real Madrid | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Real Madrid win |
| Round of 16 | Inter | 2 | Dortmund | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | Dortmund | 0 | Inter | 1 | Leg 2 of 2; Inter win |
| Round of 16 | Bayern | 2 | PSV | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | PSV | 1 | Bayern | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Bayern win |
| Round of 16 | Barcelona | 2 | Juventus | 0 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | Juventus | 1 | Barcelona | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Barcelona win |
| Round of 16 | Man City | 2 | PSG | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | PSG | 1 | Man City | 1 | Leg 2 of 2; Man City win on penalties following extra-time |
| Round of 16 | Atletico | 0 | Arsenal | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | Atletico | 1 | Leg 2 of 2; Arsenal win |
| Round of 16 | Aston Villa | 2 | RB Leipzig | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; RB Leipzig win |
| Round of 16 | Atalanta | 1 | Liverpool | 1 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Round of 16 | Liverpool | 0 | Atalanta | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Liverpool win on penalties following extra-time |
| Quarter-Finals | Real Madrid | 3 | Bayern | 1 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Quarter-Finals | Bayern | 2 | Real Madrid | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Real Madrid win |
| Quarter-Finals | RB Leipzig | 1 | Inter | 1 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Quarter-Finals | Inter | 2 | RB Leipzig | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; RB Leipzig win on penalties following extra-time |
| Quarter-Finals | Barcelona | 2 | Man City | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Quarter-Finals | Man City | 3 | Barcelona | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Man City win |
| Quarter-Finals | Arsenal | 2 | Liverpool | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Quarter-Finals | Liverpool | 2 | Arsenal | 0 | Leg 2 of 2; Liverpool win |
| Semi-Finals | RB Leipzig | 0 | Man City | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Semi-Finals | Man City | 2 | RB Leipzig | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Man City win |
| Semi-Finals | Liverpool | 1 | Real Madrid | 2 | Leg 1 of 2 |
| Semi-Finals | Real Madrid | 2 | Liverpool | 2 | Leg 2 of 2; Real Madrid win |
| Final | Man City | 2 | Real Madrid | 0 | Man City are Champions League winners |
According to the supercomputer, although Real Madrid are well-placed to race out of the blocks in the league phase - before bypassing an exceptionally tough knockout phase that sees them face AC Milan, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool without needing extra-time - Carlo Ancelotti's side will come unstuck against Manchester City in a repeat of last season's compelling semi-final.
With Pep Guardiola's contract expiring in June of next year, if the predictions turn out to be reality, then his final game in charge will come in the final, where the Citizens are projected to beat Real Madrid 2-0 to clinch their second Champions League trophy - it would be a fitting end to an era that has necessitated domestic dominance but often struggled to translate this into European success.
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Liverpool fans probably won't be expecting much from their first European adventure under Slot - even though they have started this campaign in fine fettle, winning their first three Premier League games without conceding. But the supercomputer has them making it all the way to the semi-finals, with a clockwork-like defeat to Los Blancos - similar to that endured in the league phase - bringing an end to their campaign.
GiveMeSport Key Statistic: Arne Slot became only the second Liverpool manager ever to win his first away league game against Man United, emulating George Kay whose side won 5-2 at Old Trafford in November 1936 when the Reds won 3-0 at the start of September.
The Reds who tipped to be in charge of Arsenal's fate, as the Gunners are predicted to be knocked out by Mo Salah and co. at the quarter-final stage. Meanwhile, Aston Villa's first Champions League campaign since 1983 will be a dramatic one, with projections suggesting they will get knocked out in the Round of 16 via a goal-laden 5-4 aggregate defeat to RB Leipzig.
But this is likely not going to come with a byproduct of despair for Villa fans when they learn about the Bundesliga outfits' potential underdog story. Despite only being founded in 2009, and having gained entry into continental football in the 2017-18 season, the German club are projected to be the surprise package this term. They are predicted to overcome Inter Milan in the quarter-final before being eliminated in the last four by Man City
2024-09-07T22:07:30Z dg43tfdfdgfd